Stars vs Hurricanes Picks and Predictions: Carolina is a Different Beast at Home

The Carolina Hurricanes’ insane schedule continues tonight as they welcome the Dallas Stars after snapping a season-high four-game losing skid with a victory over the Lightning on Tuesday.

The Stars come into tonight’s meeting having won three of their last four and currently own the eighth spot in the West.

Can the Stars continue to rely on their top line and stay in the postseason hunt? Can the Canes get back to their winning ways despite their sixth straight game versus a playoff team?

Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Stars vs. Hurricanes.

Stars vs Hurricanes odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Hurricanes opened as -185 home favorites but have gained some steam and have moved to -215 as of this afternoon, with a total of 5.5 leaning to the Over. These two teams met in Dallas back in November and closed as a pick ‘em with a total of 5.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Stars vs Hurricanes predictions

• Prediction: Hurricanes 3-way ML (-125)
• Prediction: Under 5.5 (+105)
• Best bet: Stars TT Under 2.5 (-125)

Predictions made on 3/24/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Stars vs Hurricanes game info

• Location: PNC Arena, Raleigh, NC 
• Date: Thursday, March 24, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Stars vs Hurricanes betting preview

Key injuries

Stars: Braden Holtby G (Out), Miro Heiskanen D (Out).
Hurricanes: Jordan Martinook F (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Stars vs Hurricanes head-to-head record since 2019-20

Stars: 4-6 SU, 26 goals for.
Hurricanes: 6-4 SU, 34 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 8-1-1 in Hurricanes’ last 10 overall. Find more NHL betting trends for Stars vs. Hurricanes.

Stars vs Hurricanes picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Hurricanes were staring at a potential five-game losing streak ahead of their game versus the Bolts two nights ago. The Canes hung on for a massive 3-2 win that should hopefully carry over some confidence into another tough matchup for Carolina tonight.

The Hurricanes are 1-4 SU in their last five but have faced the Lightning, Rangers, Capitals, Maple Leafs, and Penguins. There isn’t a team in hockey that’s has had a more difficult schedule over the last two weeks, and although the results haven’t been great for Rob Brind’Amour’s club, Carolina played competitively in all those games.

This is still a team that allows the fewest goals per game at home (2.06), and has the third-best home point percentage behind the Avs and Panthers. 

This Carolina offense hasn’t been rolling of late with zero games of four or more goals in its last 12, but all six of the team’s last wins have all come by scoring three or fewer goals. Only two teams have more one-goal wins than tonight’s home favorites.

The Stars will try to knock off a Carolina team that is 24-5-3 at home. Dallas is coming off a 5-3 home win over the Oilers on Tuesday, but the West’s No. 8 team needed three goals in the final six minutes to grab the win. The Oilers collapsed in that game. 

Including that improbable victory, the Stars are 3-4 straight up in their last seven games and have just two regulation wins in that stretch. They also have a negative goal differential this month and are allowing 3.40 goals per game.

The Stars have been relying on a solid offense (six of their last wins came when scoring four or more goals), but even in their recent losses, the Canes have been stingy. 

Freddy Andersen (confirmed) has the league’s best GAA (2.06) and the second-best SV% (.928), and has allowed more than two goals in just two of his last seven starts. He should be a Vezina finalist. He’s 16-4-1 at home this season.

Jake Oettinger has been run hard of late and has started 15 of Dallas’ last 16 games. If Oettinger gets the call tonight, it will be his fifth game in eight nights. He has dropped four of his last seven starts and has allowed at least three goals in five of those appearances. 

This isn’t the greatest matchup for the Stars who are heavily reliant on the Robertson-Hintz-Pavelski line, and with the last change and an opponent that can eliminate a team’s best weapons, Dallas might struggle to get three goals tonight. Only one team has scored more than three goals in regulation versus the Canes over their last nine games. 

+180 might seem like a deal for the Stars, but they were +165 in Washington recently, will be playing their sixth game in nine nights, and face one of the best home teams in hockey.

We’ll take the Canes in regulation as they’ve been playing the hardest schedule of late and got back to their winning ways with that big win over the Bolts.

Prediction: Hurricanes 3-way ML (-125)

Over/Under analysis

Getting a Canes’ total of 5.5 is nothing new and despite it leaning to the Over, we won’t likely see the 6 hit the board. That’s fine with us as the Hurricanes have been playing great Under hockey of late and are 10-2-1 to the Under across their last 13 games. Over those 13 contests, the Canes are seeing an average of just 4.46 goals per game.

Getting goals past the Canes, especially at home, has been a difficult task for the entire league all season and even more so lately. Over those 13 games, Carolina has given up just 28 goals (2.15 GAA) which is the lowest mark in hockey.

They allow the second-fewest shots per game in hockey, own the league’s best penalty kill, and are one of six teams with 33 Unders on the season — one of those also being the Stars.

These two clubs met back in November and managed just five total goals including an empty-net goal. The Stars had just 17 total shots in that game and both teams combined for zero power-play goals.

Neither goalie has imploded of late either. Andersen has allowed more than three goals just once over his last 12 starts while Oettinger has given up more than three goals just once over his last 17 games. 

We could easily see the Canes shutting down the top line in Dallas. If Carolina can keep the HRP line off the scoresheet, Dallas will struggle to get scoring from its secondary lines against the stingiest team in hockey. No team has allowed fewer 5-on-5 goals than the Hurricanes.

Betting Under 5.5’s isn’t for everyone, but that’s where we’re leaning tonight in Raleigh.

Prediction: Under 5.5 (+105)

Best bet

The Canes have held their opponents to Under 2.5 goals in eight of their last nine home games and 17 of their 25 home games this season. They just held the Bolts to two goals and own the best GAA in the league, which gets even shorter on home ice. 

Dallas managed just 17 shots in the last meeting and is going into a loud barn in the middle of a crazy hectic schedule, riding a goalie who has played seemingly every game since the All-Star break.

If Carolina gets up early, it could shut down this offense and with the league’s best penalty kill, even a few penalties might not get the visitors back in the game.

Pick: Stars TT Under 2.5 (-125)