The Calgary Flames face elimination tonight after Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers took Game 4 in a 5-3 win. The Flames have talked ad nauseam about stopping McDavid but still have had no answer for the best player in hockey.
McDavid has 11 points in four games and Leon Draisaitl has 14 points. With the series heading back to Scotiabank Saddledome and Calgary getting the last change, can Darryl Sutter keep this from turning into another track meet? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Flames vs. Oilers.
Oilers vs Flames Game 5 odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Calgary opened as a -145 ML favorite for Game 5 and has gained some confidence in the market moving as short as -155. This will be the Flames’ third home game of the series as they closed at -170 in both Games 1 and 2.
The total has closed at 6.5 in each of the series’ four games and that’s where it sits tonight and leans to the Over. In total, 36 goals have been scored through four games in this series.
Oilers vs Flames Game 5 predictions
Predictions made on 5/26/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Oilers vs Flames Game 5 info
• Location: Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB
• Date: Thursday, May 26, 2022
• Puck drop: 9:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN, Sportsnet
Oilers vs Flames series odds (EDM leads 3-1)
Oilers vs Flames Game 5 betting preview
Oilers: Evander Kane F (Probable), Kyle Turris F (Out).
Flames: Christopher Tanev D (Questionable).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Oilers vs Flames head-to-head record in the series
Oilers: 3-1 SU, 20 goals for.
Flames: 1-3 SU, 16 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The home team is 13-3 SU in the last 16 meetings between the Oilers and Flames. Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs. Flames.
Oilers vs Flames Game 5 picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
The Calgary Flames came into this series as heavy favorites to advance to the third round but Connor McDavid and the Oilers have pushed the favorites to the brink of elimination in the battle of Alberta. Edmonton has ripped off three straight wins in the series and in the one game that Flames did win, in Game 1, Edmonton erased a 6-2 second-period Calgary lead to tie things at six before losing 9-6.
Edmonton has played with a lead, played from behind, and has given up leads while somehow managing to steal three of four games from the West’s second-best team. We like the Oilers to move on but can this Edmonton team really take four straight games against the Flames, including two in Calgary?
First off, with the way that the McDavid-Draisaitl-Kane line has been playing, Edmonton has a chance to win any game and erase any deficit. But this is still an Oilers team with flaws.
For starters, Mike Smith’s inconsistencies are evident. He allowed a game-tying goal from 130 feet away in Game 4 and owns a 3.30 GAA in the series while allowing three goals in three of the four games. He also faces more shots/60 than any other goalie in the playoffs.
RASMUS ANDERSSON FROM 132FT OUT ???? pic.twitter.com/llNkSGNeTA
— Gino Hard (@Ginohard_) May 25, 2022
Secondly, this is an Edmonton blueline that hasn’t been exposed as the Oilers have played a pair of teams in the playoffs that lack depth talent up front. Duncan Keith, Cody Ceci, Tyson Barrie, and Brett Kulak are two-thirds of the team’s starting blueline and have had a hand in conceding 16 goals in four games and averaging 38.3 shots per game against.
Looking at some advanced metrics, the Oilers have lost the Corsi battle in all four games, which is a fancy way of saying the Flames have created more shot attempts than the Oilers. Calgary is also creating more scoring chances, with 138 to the Oilers’ 118.
The Flames lack scoring talent in their bottom nine and this game will come down to them stepping up. So far in the series, Calgary has generated 55 high-danger scoring chances and has produced just five goals from those quality chances. High-danger scoring chances are roughly 20% probable so Calgary scoring at just 9% on their HD scoring chances is subpar.
Edmonton is giving the Flames a chance to get back into this series and if Jacob Markstrom can steal one game and Sutter can create optimal matchups that somehow slow down the Oilers’ top line, Calgary should force Game 6. The Flames are 4-2 SU at home in the playoffs and finished the regular season with one of the best goal differentials at home with a plus-57 over 41 games.
The price is even a little long here as the Flames closed as -170 favorites in Games 1 and 2.
Prediction: Flames moneyline (-150 at bet365)
As much as Calgary wants to keep this a tight game, it has been unable to slow down this Edmonton offense that is basically playing just two lines. Even at home, the Flames couldn’t slow down this offense-first Edmonton team.
The Over is 3-1 so far in the series and in the one game that went Under, Smith needed to make 31 saves and Markstrom stopped 37 pucks. Even if we take out Game 1’s 15-goal outburst, the series is still averaging 7.0 goals per game.
Markstrom can’t seem to stop this motivated Edmonton offense, as the Vezina finalist has an unsightly 5.28 goals against average and a .850 save percentage through four games. He hasn’t looked like the same goalie that led the league in shutouts and although he can still single-handedly win a game as he did in the first round, keeping the Oilers off the scoreboard will be nearly impossible.
Calgary and Sutter know this, and the home side is going to have to generate some offense to win this game and avoid elimination. The Gaudreau-Lindholm-Tkachuk line leads the Flames in playoff scoring and needs some help tonight. Some secondary scoring has come to life with Mikael Backlund’s line, with Blake Coleman and Andrew Mangiapane producing a 5-on-5 goal in Game 4. Calgary will need another good showing from the new second line.
Smith has a .931 save percentage so far in the postseason which, if you’ve watched Smith this season, know these numbers are unsustainable. Smith is a career .912 SV% goalie which is respectable but he has a weak blueline in front of him and has benefited from Calgary failing to score at a normal rate on its high-quality scoring chances.
In the series, the top-six forwards on Edmonton have totaled 43 of the team’s 50 combined points. Kane didn’t travel with the team to Calgary yesterday as his girlfriend just gave birth to their baby son. He will likely arrive later but will join the playoff’s hottest line.
Calgary has wanted to play its game since the opening match of the series and has failed to do so through the three following games. If Calgary is going to win this game, it’s going to have to hit the four-goal mark and with the way the McDavid-Draisaitl-Kane line has been playing, as well as the Oilers’ second line, we should continue to see more two-way scoring tonight.
Prediction: Over 6.5 (-115 at bet365)
This best bet might not correlate well with our prediction of the Flames to win, but we’re not passing on a player who is averaging three points per game vs. the Flames this season over eight games (four in the regular season and four in the playoffs).
With so much talk about Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl has amassed 13 points in the series’ first four games. He’s scored at least three points in each game of the series and has absolutely punished the Flames this season with 24 points in eight games.
vs Flames in this series:
Leon Draisaitl: 2-11-13/+6/4GP
Connor McDavid: 2-9-11/+7/4GP
Evander Kane: 5-1-5/+4/4GP
Zack Hyman: 5-0-5/+3/4GP
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: 2-3-5/+1/4GP pic.twitter.com/Ema9mwRQW1
— Bob Stauffer (@Bob_Stauffer) May 26, 2022
Draisaitl isn’t exactly at 100 percent but he’s still been the team’s best producer and even collected two goals and four assists in the two games in Calgary already in this series.
McDavid is paying -145 to the Over 1.5 points while his linemate is paying +140 and those numbers don’t correlate well, either. Give us Draisaitl to continue to stack points in this series.
Pick: Leon Draisaitl Over 1.5 points (+140)
Stats from Covers, Moneypuck, Natural Stat Trick and NHL.com
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