The Toronto Maple Leafs and Auston Matthews are lighting the lamp and stacking wins along the way. They’ll take their high-octane offense into FLA Live Arena tonight to take on the Florida Panthers who are 12-3 straight up over their last 15 games. The Leafs are on the end of a back-to-back, but the Cats will be playing their third in four nights as well.
Can Erik Kallren stop the highest-scoring offense in the league? Are we going to see a ton of goals in a game that features the best road offense versus the best home offense? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Panthers.
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Maple Leafs vs Panthers odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Leafs opened as +150 road dogs on the back-to-back but have moved to +145 with an opening total of 7.0. Toronto closed as -120 home favorites in a meeting two weeks ago where the total closed at 7.0 after opening at 6.5.
Maple Leafs vs Panthers predictions
Predictions made on 4/05/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Maple Leafs vs Panthers game info
• Location: FLA Live Arena, Sunrise, FL
• Date: Tuesday, April 5, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TSN, Bally Sports Florida
Maple Leafs vs Panthers betting preview
Maple Leafs: William Nylander F (Questionable), Jake Muzzin D (Probable), Petr Mrazek G (Out), Rasmus Sandin D (Out).
Panthers: Aaron Ekblad D (Out), Noel Acciari F (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Maple Leafs vs Panthers head-to-head record since 2017-18
Maple Leafs: 5-5 SU, 40 goals for.
Panthers: 5-5 SU, 37 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 9-1-2 in the Panthers’ last 12 vs. the Atlantic. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Panthers.
Maple Leafs vs Panthers picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
The Leafs have ripped off five straight wins which include last night’s 6-2 bottom-spanking of the Lightning. Toronto has proved it can play with the big boys as this team is 8-1 SU in its last nine games as -145 favorites or less.
Auston Matthews is coming off a hat trick and not even the Bolts and Victor Hedman could slow down this Mitch Marner-Auston Matthews-Michael Bunting line last night that finished with four goals at even strength. But can the Leafs take two points against the East’s best with their backup in net?
Erik Kallgren is the confirmed starter for the Leafs with Jack Campbell grabbing the victory last night. He’s 4-2-1 in seven games this year with the rookie carrying a 2.71 GAA and a .907 SV%. Not great numbers, but he has been reliable enough for the Leafs to stay competitive — even against great opponents.
Kallgren came in for an injured Petr Mrazek and helped his team pick up a big win in Boston and his other wins have come against the Hurricanes, Jets, and Stars.
Kallgren will face the league’s best offense that’s potting 4.12 goals per game on the season and 4.68 gpg at home. Florida is 13-3 SU over the last 30 days but an easy schedule has also skewed those numbers.
Of those 13 wins, only one has come against a playoff team while the Panthers are 1-3 SU versus teams with a winning record in that stretch. If there is one offense that can go toe-to-toe with the Panthers, it’s the Leafs’.
Florida scores the most goals per game in the league but Toronto is right behind them in second place. It scores 3.94 gpg on the road which is the best mark in hockey and it has zero issues scoring at even strength. The Matthews line had four goals and nine total points just in last night’s victory alone.
Giving the Leafs’ power-play opportunities would be a big mistake too as this is the league’s No. 1 PP and is 7-for-16 over its last six games.
This Toronto offense will likely see goalie Sergei Bobrovsky who is 20-4 SU since January 1 but has been getting bailed out by the league’s best offense as his 2.76 GAA and .911 SV% indicate.
Florida also gives up plenty of scoring opportunities as Bobrovsky has an xGAA of 3.11 and the team ranks in the bottom half of the league in expected goals against at even strength. Only Montreal allows more high-danger shots per game than it.
Toronto also has a big advantage in the face-off circle as it is the best face-off team in hockey while the Panthers and their 47% face-off win percentage rank in the Bottom 5.
The Buds play good teams well and have the offense that can make up for Kallgren’s inexperience. This is the best price on the Leafs’ ML all season and we aren’t passing it up.
Prediction: Maple Leafs ML (+149 at Coolbet)
Not many games open at 7.0, but here we are and it might be deserved. The last meeting two weeks ago opened at 6.5 and closed at 7.0. It needed an empty-net goal to push the total with the 5-2 Toronto win but this is still a meeting of the two highest-scoring teams in the league with some questionable goaltending in each crease.
The Leafs are 5-0-1 to the Over in their last six games and have scored at least five goals in all of them with at least six goals in four straight. They hung six on the Lightning and Bruins over the last week which is impressive as both of those clubs rank in the Top 10 in GAA on the season.
This Toronto team has the most shorthanded goals on the season, the league’s best power play, and the second-most 5-on-5 goals on the season.
Matthews is driving this offense and couldn’t get slowed down by one of the best shut-down teams in Tampa last night as he finished with three goals and an assist. This is the best goalscorer in the league riding his biggest hot streak — and we’re here for it.
The Panthers’ offense is also a wagon, scoring more goals than any other team in the league. They’re 5-1-1 to the Over in their last seven, have the league’s No. 10 power-play on the season, and score more even-strength than any other team in hockey.
We know both offenses can pull their weight for this heavy Over but can each team concede the needed goals?
There is a lot more tape on Kallgren as the rookie goalie was sensational in his first two starts but has allowed 15 goals over his last four games. He has been put into a difficult situation with the Leafs’ goaltending issues but isn’t a highly regarded prospect and carried a 3.00 GAA in the AHL before his callup.
On the other side, Sergei Bobrovsky has been a rollercoaster again this season. He has a 2.74 GAA and was pulled in his last start versus the Devils after allowing six goals. Over the last 30 days and seven starts, Bobrovsky owns a 3.13 GAA and a sub-.900 SV%.
The Leafs have easily hit two straight Overs with zero PP goals in back-to-back games. This offense can’t be stopped and now will face another offense that can go shot-for-shot with them and we’re here for all the goals.
Prediction: Over 7 (-110 at FanDuel)
Auston Matthews is an auto bet at this point and we’re happy to ride the wave with the market not correcting itself. Matthews was -104 to score last game and finished with three and now we’re seeing his same goal prop at -110 at FanDuel but as low as -140 at some other books.
Matthews leads the league in goals with 54 and has his sights set on the prestigious 60. He comes into a game with a total of 7.0 and a great matchup to score again tonight, having scored in six straight and 12 of his last 13.
Mitch Marner is playing the best hockey of his career on the wing and Matthews doesn’t need a power play to find the back of the net. If Andrei Vasilevskiy and Victor Hedman couldn’t stop 34, we doubt Bobrovksy and an Aaron Ekblad-less Florida team can.
Pick: Matthews anytime goal (-110)