The Toronto Maple Leafs will need their Dory memory after Game 4’s no-show as they look to take a 3-2 series lead versus the Tampa Bay Lightning tonight at Scotiabank Arena. The Leafs enter the best-of-three as -125 home favorites and will need a better performance from everyone in the locker room if they don’t want to face elimination on Thursday.  

Can the Leafs take their third series lead tonight and avoid a parade to the penalty box? Can the Lightning get to Jack Campbell early after the Toronto goalie was pulled in Game 4? Find out in free NHL picks and predictions for Lightning vs. Leafs on Tuesday, May 10.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Leafs opened as -130 home favorites and have since moved slightly to -125 with a total of 6.5 that’s leaning to the Over. In the two other home games for Toronto, the Leafs closed as -120 and -135 favorites. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs predictions

Predictions made on 5/10/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Lightning vs Maple Leafs game info

Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
Date: Tuesday, May 10, 2022
Puck drop: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2, CBC

Lightning vs Maple Leafs series odds (tied 2-2)

Lightning: +100
Maple Leafs: -120

Lightning vs Maple Leafs betting preview

Key injuries

Lightning: None.
Maple Leafs: Rasmus Sandin D (Questionable), Petr Mrazek G (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs head-to-head record in the series

Lightning: 2-2 SU, 14 goals for.
Maple Leafs: 2-2 SU, 16 goals for. 

Betting trend to know

On the season, the Leafs and Lightning are a combined 40-20 to the Over on totals of 6 or greater. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs. Maple Leafs.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

There are a couple of ways you can look at the Leafs heading into Game 5. You can see that they’re tied 2-2 in the series with the two-time defending champions with home-ice advantage, or you can look at Toronto’s Game 4 performance and see the many faults with this team. 

If you followed the Leafs early in the season, then these inconsistencies are nothing new, but it’s still amazing that this team can look so different from game to game. The good news for the Leafs is that they bounced back after Game 2’s loss (which was also a poor effort). Beating the Bolts in back-to-back games is seemingly impossible (15-0 SU following a playoff loss in the last 15 games), so Sheldon Keefe will have his team ready tonight.

Beating the Bolts means beating Andrei Vaslievskiy — the Russian goalie owns a 3.54 GAA and a .888 SV%. through four games. He’s allowed at least three goals in all four games and has given up 14 5-on-5 goals. The reigning Conn Smythe winner has been bailed out by an offense that has scored five of its 14 goals on the power play.

The Leafs have struggled to stay out of the box as the club has been shorthanded an incredible 23 times which has accounted for 36 minutes of shorthanded time. Toronto finished as one of the least penalized teams in hockey at home during the regular and it’s tough to imagine they take another seven or eight minor penalties tonight after Game 4’s performance. 

The Leafs have outscored the Bolts nine to seven at even strength and have won each game where they have drawn more penalties. Toronto was 31-8-2 at home during the regular season and had the third-best home PK. The Leafs can take their third series lead if they keep this game at 5-on-5 and Jack Campbell can mentally rebound after getting pulled in Game 4.

Keefe took his sweet time pulling his No. 1 on Sunday, but it wasn’t Campbell’s night as he gave up five goals. Since last season, Campbell now has a 2.36 GAA and a .918 SV% in the playoffs, which are solid numbers. We’re expecting his team to skate hard in front of him tonight after they hung him out to dry in the last game. 

The things the Leafs need to do tonight are fixable. They need to stay out of the box (they finished with the fourth-fewest penalties taken per game at home) and get star performances from their star players (Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner coming off a poor performance should be motivating). John Tavares and William Nylander found some offensive success at the end of Game 4, which they will need to carry over. Ultimately, it’s the Leafs who can beat themselves, and coming off a piss-poor showing on Sunday, the legs should be moving in the home barn tonight.

Recency bias has been in full effect in this series as neither team has strung together victories, and we’re hoping that continues. We know the Leafs struggle to win a game when leading a series and Tampa doesn’t lose back-to-back games, so the Leafs on the ML tonight is fitting. We’re also getting this at a better price than Game 2.

PredictionMaple Leafs moneyline (-125 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

The Over is 3-1 to open this series, and with the books still giving us a total of 6.5, we’re not straying away from another high-scoring game. The games have averaged 7.5 total goals, and with an xgoal average of 6.60 per game, these goals aren’t flukes.

The winning team in each of the first four games has scored at least five goals themselves. In total, eight power-play goals, two shorthanded goals, 16 even-strength goals and four empty-net goals have been scored.

Vasilevskiy has allowed at least three goals in each game while Campbell is coming off a game where he gave up five goals and got pulled. Combined, the two goalies have a save percentage of .888 through four games, and also own a goals saved above expected/60 below 0.00. 

The biggest story of this series has likely been the number of penalties called. It has bordered on insane for a playoff series, but penalties are up across the league right now and we doubt the referees swallow the whistles tonight. So far, 28% of the series has been spent with a man advantage, and that number is even a little higher if you count the time teams have pulled the goalie late.

The Leafs aren’t getting much help from their higher-paid supporting staff but John Tavares and William Nylander had some success late in Game 4 and we hope they can carry it over into tonight. Keefe is shuffling up his lines and they’ll look more similar to the Game 1 lineup with Bunting on the top line and Nylander on the third line. This should give the Leafs some scoring depth, and with the last change, should be a matchup advatage.

Overs are hitting at 63% across the last seven days and with the way the games have been called, we doubt that trend changes drastically. The Leafs’ top guns will be motivated while Steven Stamkos and Brayden Point also have some room to improve offensively. 

The Leafs are a threat to score at any time on the ice and the Bolts have spent more time on the power play than any other team in the league at over nine minutes per game. Give us some more goals Tuesday in a series where goaltending has been average at best. 

PredictionOver 6.5 (-115 at bet365)

Best bet

Brayden Point leads the Bolts in shots on goal with 16, has 14 shots over his last three games and has recorded at least four shots in each of those three matches. 

Even in the blowout win on Sunday, Point wanted to win every puck battle and has been the hardest skater on Tampa Bay. Point is not cute with the puck and has no issues taking an open shot. 

He’s getting a ton of O-zone shifts and his shots are hitting the net, which is a very underrated skill when looking into this market. Point is getting 76% of his shots on net, while Stamkos sits at 30% for comparison.

We like Point to continue to get shots on net as he gets minutes on the power play and shorthanded as well. 

PickBrayden Point Over 2.5 shots (-112)

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