Islanders vs Maple Leafs Picks and Predictions: Buds Continue Dominance Over Isles

The Toronto Maple Leafs will be trying to strengthen their hold on second place in the Atlantic Division as they host the New York Islanders tonight. The Islanders are out of the playoffs and are a day removed from a 3-0 victory over the worst team in hockey, the Montreal Canadiens. 

The Maple Leafs are on a two-game winning streak, including a 5-4 overtime victory over the Ottawa Senators on Saturday. They come into Sunday’s game heavily favored at -205 at DraftKings. 

Can Toronto take care of the Islanders or will New York pull off the upset? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Islanders vs. Maple Leafs on Sunday, April 17.

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Islanders vs Maple Leafs odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Maple Leafs opened as the -189 favorite and the odds have risen at most sportsbooks, though FanDuel still has them at -185 as of Sunday morning. The Islanders started at +170 and dropped at most places except for DraftKings, where they’re available at +175. The total opened at 5.5 but has gone to six, with the Over at -115 and the Under at -105.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Islanders vs Maple Leafs predictions

• Prediction: Maple Leafs -1.5 (+142)
• Prediction: Under 6 (-105)
• Best bet: Islanders TT Under 1.5 (+230)

Predictions made on 4/17/2022 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Islanders vs Maple Leafs game info

• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• Date: Sunday, April 17, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: MSG+, Sportsnet

Islanders vs Maple Leafs betting preview

Key injuries

Islanders: Semyon Varlamov G (Questionable), Scott Mayfield D (Out), Cal Clutterbuck F (Out).
Maple Leafs: Rasmus Sandin D (Out), Jake Muzzin D (Questionable), Ondrej Kase F (Out), Petr Mrazek G (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Islanders vs Maple Leafs head-to-head record since 2020

Islanders: 0-3 SU, one goal for.
Maple Leafs: 3-0 SU, nine goals for.

Betting trend to know

In three meetings, stretching back to 2020, the Islanders have been shut out twice and scored just one goal against the Maple Leafs.

Find more NHL betting trends for Islanders vs. Maple Leafs.

Islanders vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Puck line analysis

It is impossible to read the minds of the New York Islanders players, so bettors have no idea how motivated they are since they’ve been eliminated from the postseason. Are they playing for pride — or maybe their jobs — or are they just going through the motions?

They looked strong against a hapless Montreal team, shutting them out 3-0 on Friday, but the Canadiens are so bad it’s hard to gauge the Islanders from that game. 

Before that victory, New York was 3-3 in its last six, knowing the playoffs were not in the cards. Motivated or not, they have not beaten the Maple Leafs since Nov. 14, 2019, and probably won’t on Sunday.

Toronto is a day removed from a 5-4 overtime win over Ottawa and is 4-5 on the second game of back-to-back contests this season, but one of those victories was against the Islanders. 

The Maple Leafs have thrived on Metropolitan opponents, going 15-3 in their last 18 games. 

They come into this game anywhere from -185 to -205, so betting them on the moneyline seems pointless. They do, however, have an attractive puck line and I expect the Maple Leafs to dominate again on Sunday. 

Prediction: Maple Leafs -1.5 (+142 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

The trends between the Islanders and Maples Leafs are screaming take the Over, but one trend bucks that thinking. While the Over is 6-1-2 for Toronto against Eastern Conference opponents, the Under is 4-1 in the last five between the Islanders and the Maple Leafs. 

Now, the Islanders have the offense to trip the Over. Brock Nelson leads the team with 34 goals and Anders Lee is close behind with 26. The team, however, is 23rd in the NHL in goals per game at a measly 2.76. 

The bigger worry about the total going Over is Auston Matthews and Co. Toronto is third in the league in goals for, averaging 3.85, and Matthews leads the league with 58. Meanwhile, Mitch Marner is seventh in the NHL in points with 93. 

Still, Islanders goalie Ilya Sorokin is putting together a year worthy of Vezina Trophy consideration. His 2.29 GAA ranks fourth in the NHL and his .928 save percentage is the second-best mark in hockey. 

Toronto goalie Jack Campbell is having a solid — if up-and-down — year, with a 2.73 GAA and .911 save percentage. 

If both goalies have above-average games, this will stay Under the total of six.  

Prediction: Under 6 (-105 at Caesars)

Best bet

The Islanders have not been able to solve Toronto for the last two seasons and there isn’t a whole lot to indicate they will do so on Sunday. In the last three games the two teams have played, Toronto has shut them out twice and won the other 3-1. In addition, the Islanders are 1-5 in the last six games at Scotiabank Arena. 

New York is top-heavy on offense. The first line of Nelson, Lee, and Anthony Beauvillier has 71 of the team’s 204 goals. The second line of Zach Parise, Mathew Barzal, and Kieffer Bellows accounts for 33 goals. 

With those two lines scoring more than half of the team’s goals, Toronto should find a way to center its defense around them. 

Also, when the Isles lose, they tend to lose by more than a single goal. In their last five defeats, four have been by two or more goals. 

Pick: Islanders team total Under 1.5 (+230 at DraftKings)

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