The Toronto Maple Leafs sit six points up on the third-place Tampa Bay Lightning thanks to a stretch of 10-1-1 hockey as they head into Tuesday night’s meeting with the Philadelphia Flyers. The Flyers are losers of five straight, 10 of their last 12, and are probably ready to call it a season.
Will Auston Matthews suit up after missing Sunday’s contest or does it really matter with Toronto as -450 home favorites? Have the Flyers hit the snooze button on the season with only six games remaining? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Flyers vs. Maple Leafs.
Flyers vs Maple Leafs odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Leafs opened as massive -425 favorites and have gone as high as -450 on the moneyline. The total has also seen some significant movement and has hit 7 after opening at 6.5. These two teams met back at the beginning of the month with Toronto winning 6-3 as a -280 road favorite with a closing total of 6.5.
Flyers vs Maple Leafs predictions
Predictions made on 4/19/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Flyers vs Maple Leafs game info
• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• Date: Tuesday, April 19, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TSN4, NBC Sports Philadelphia
Flyers vs Maple Leafs betting preview
Flyers: Carter Hart G (Out), Cam Atkinson F (Questionable), Rasmus Ristolainen D (Out).
Maple Leafs: Auston Matthews F (Questionable), Rasmus Sandin D (Out), Jake Muzzin D (Questionable), Ondrej Kase F (Out), Petr Mrazek G (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Flyers vs Maple Leafs head-to-head record since 2017-18
Flyers: 5-5 SU, 33 goals for.
Maple Leafs: 5-5 SU, 37 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 9-3-1 in the last 13 meetings in Toronto. Find more NHL betting trends for Flyers vs. Maple Leafs.
Flyers vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Puck line analysis
The Leafs are on an absolute heater right now. They’ve lost in regulation just once over their last 12 games, have beaten some of the league’s best over the stretch, have improved on their performances versus non-playoff teams, and are doing it with a goalie rotation and Auston Matthews out or not at 100%.
The league leader in goals missed Sunday’s 4-2 win versus the Islanders with an undisclosed injury but was at morning skate today and is questionable for tonight. Even if Matthews does take a seat, this team is still good enough to beat a Flyers team that’s stumbling to the finish line and possibly had the worst season of any franchise this season.
The Flyers come into tonight’s meeting having dropped five straight and have been outscored 27 to 11 over that stretch. Goalie Carter Hart is out, top-six winger and point leader Cam Atkinson is questionable while top-three defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen is also out.
It has been an awful season for the Flyers who have the second-worst record in the East and since trading away captain Claude Giroux, they have the third-worst point percentage in hockey, the sixth-worst offense, and the second-worst GAA (4.24).
The Leafs come into tonight with an incredible 81.8% implied winning probability on the -450 ML price. The Flyers’ ML at +350 might entice some, but this is not a good spot for the Flyers even if Matthews sits. They are on fumes, missing three key pieces in Atkinson, Hart, and Ristolainen and have lost both meetings this season by a total of six goals.
Because of the lopsided projected victory for the Leafs, FanDuel is giving us another +2.5 puck line at -110 which is tough to ignore. The Leafs needed two goals in the final six minutes in the last meeting to cover the -2.5 in the 6-3 win. Toronto only managed 28 shots in that game and if the Flyers can keep the pace down, losing by two or fewer goals at -110 is a price that doesn’t come around very often.
The Leafs have struggled to dominate poor teams over the last two months and are 0-9 ATS (-2.5) over their last nine games as a -285 favorite or longer, which includes a few outright losses. It is very difficult to blow teams out in the NHL regardless of where they sit in the standings.
Even if the Leafs start backup Erik Kallgren and Matthews sits, this should still be a game that they should skate away with two points, however, winning by three goals is no easy task in the NHL and even with how bad the Flyers have been of late, hockey is a game of bounces and we expect the Flyers to be able to pot at least two goals here.
With Tampa Bay on deck for the Leafs on Thursday, Philly might not get the best of the Buds tonight at Scotiabank.
Prediction: Flyers +2.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
There is a reason this game opened at 6.5 and immediately got bet up to 7 and that’s because the Leafs have been an Over wagon of late.
Over their last 13 games, the Buds are 10-1-2 to the Over. They’re scoring 5.08 goals per game while also giving up 3.33. No team is seeing more goals per game than Toronto over that stretch at 8.41 total goals per contest. Only three teams have hit the Over more times than the Leafs this season, but is 7 too high of a number here?
The Leafs played the Islanders on Sunday in a game that we thought would go Under the total of 6, but a 4-2 final with just one goal in the game’s final 26 minutes gave backers a push. It likely should have been an Over but it showed the Leafs can score without Matthews who is very questionable today after practicing with the injured skaters this morning.
The power play woke up in Matthews’ absence and that could lead to more success tonight with the Flyers having killed just two of their last six penalties and having the league’s No. 27 penalty kill.
The Flyers have no issue giving up goals with a 4.55 GAA over their last 11 games and losing goalie Carter Hart and defenseman Ristolainen doesn’t help, but can the Flyers flirt with three goals themselves tonight which will be the biggest indicator of getting this Over the number?
The Leafs have allowed at least two goals in 16 straight games, a good reason for their 3.00 GAA over that stretch. The 7-6 shootout in Florida obviously skews those numbers but the Leafs are far from a defensively stout team and missing Jake Muzzin still hurts them.
Kallgren could get the start in net as well with Tampa on deck for Thursday. The rookie goalie has a 3.02 GAA and a save percentage below .900 on the season. He’s the best-case scenario for Over backers but even Jack Cambell allowed three goals in the last meeting two weeks ago so it’s not a huge difference either way.
The Flyers come into tonight’s game 4-1 to the Over in their last five games and if they can get two or three goals tonight, this Over would be a layup.
Despite the recent losses, Philadelphia has scored at least three goals in six of its last nine games including that meeting with the Leafs. Toronto could also be looking ahead here to Tampa which could also give the Flyers a little window to create some offense.
Either way, we like the Leafs to keep raking in the Over wins and are taking the dive on the Over 7.
Prediction: Over 7 (+105 at BetMGM)
Morgan Rielly could finish the year with the best offensive season of his career. He’s currently sixth in defensive scoring across the league and fifth in assists with 55 in 76 games.
He’s gone two games without scoring, tied for his longest drought since early February as the Toronto rearguard has been consistent all season. He also finished with a goal and two assists in the last meeting versus the Flyers.
Over the last 30 days, Rielly is second on the team in assists behind Marner with 13 helpers over 15 games and is 8-4 to the Over 0.5 assists across his last 12. The Toronto power play is finally coming to life and faces a Flyers team that has killed just two of its last six penalties.
Pick: Rielly Over 0.5 assists (+110)