The Toronto Maple Leafs are coming off another loss to a non-playoff team in Tuesday’s 5-2 loss to Buffalo and the Buds will look to rebound tonight versus the Washington Capitals at Scotiabank Arean as -160 home favorites.

Is Jack Campbell back to 100% and ready to shoulder the load down the stretch? Can the Caps continue their hot stretch and possibly move up the Eastern Conference standings and avoid a date with the Panthers? Find out in our free NHL betting picks and predictions for Capitals vs. Maple Leafs.

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Capitals vs Maple Leafs odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Leafs opened as -160 home favorites and have since moved to -165 with a total of 6.5 that is leaning to the Over. Toronto closed as -135 road favorites in a February meeting making today’s line 10-15 points too short on the Leafs. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Capitals vs Maple Leafs predictions

Predictions made on 4/14/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Capitals vs Maple Leafs game info

Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
Date: Thursday, April 14, 2022
Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: NBCS-DC, TSN4

Capitals vs Maple Leafs betting preview

Key injuries

Capitals: Dmitry Orlov D (Questionable), Carl Hagelin F (Out).
Maple Leafs: Jack Campbell G (Probable), Rasmus Sandin D (Out), Jake Muzzin D (Questionable), Wayne Simmonds F (Questionable), Ondrej Kase F (Out), Petr Mrazek G (Out).

Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Capitals vs Maple Leafs head-to-head record since 2017-18

Capitals: 6-4 SU, 30 goals for.
Maple Leafs: 4-6 SU, 30 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 7-0-1 in the Capitals’ last eight games as an underdog. Find more NHL betting trends for Capitals vs. Maple Leafs.

Capitals vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

We all know the Leafs struggle to beat bad teams, but Sheldon Keefe’s group has had no problem defeating playoff teams and winning as shorter favorites. Toronto is 10-3 straight up as -160 favorites or shorter and has lost in regulation just once to a playoff team over their last 10 contests.  

They already took down the Capitals back in February with a 5-3 final in Washington. Toronto blew a 3-1 first-period lead in that game but Rasmus Sandin’s goal late in the third sat as the winner. That game featured Petr Mrazek in net for the Buds while they chased Caps starter Ilya Samsonov after 20 minutes.

Both teams come into tonight’s game with similar records over the last 30 days but the Capitals come into tonight riding a four-game winning streak which includes wins over the Bruins, Lightning, and Penguins. Washington is coming off its biggest one-sided win of the season after a 9-2 massacre over the Flyers on Tuesday but Toronto could enter tonight as the hungrier team after the loss to Buffalo.

Before the Buffalo loss, the Leafs were playing their best hockey of 2022. They knocked off the best teams in the East and were 8-0-1 entering Tuesday’s contest. In that game, Keefe was not happy with the top line who were shut out and missed some shifts late in the third.

This could possibly motivate Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner which is a scary thing for the Caps as the duo consists of the league’s leading goal scorer and a guy who leads the league in points since January 1. 

The Leafs should also get a boost in net with Jack Campbell probable to start tonight. He missed the last game for some minor maintenance issues but is apparently ready to go. Since coming back from injury, he’s 3-1 SU with that only loss coming against the Panthers — a game he didn’t even start.

Both Ilya Samsonov and Vitek Vanecek have played 21 games since January 1 but neither goalie has been impressive of late as both goalies are spotting a save percentage below .900 over the last 30 days. The Leafs chased Samsonov in the first meeting after a three-goal first period. 

With the Leafs closing as -135 road favorites in the last game and Jack Campbell getting the nod tonight instead of Mrazek who started the last meeting, this -165 price still seems short. We like the Leafs here in a big bounce-back spot and the short price is just the icing on the cake. 

PredictionMaple Leafs moneyline (-160 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

The last meeting saw eight total goals and we’d be surprised if we didn’t see two-way scoring again tonight. 

The Capitals are scoring 3.77 goals per game over the last 30 days but are also getting some weak goaltending as their 3.31 GAA is a Bottom-12 mark in the league over that stretch. The power play is scoring at over 25% which has helped the Caps move to 7-1-1 to the Over across their last nine games. 

Washington has a ton of scoring depth as Tom Wilson, TJ Oshie, and Alex Ovechkin all play on different lines. It’s backed by arguably the worst goaltending of the eight playoff teams in the East and has the second-best Over record in hockey at 42-28.

The Leafs have also been a profitable team to the Over this with a 41-28 mark on the season. Toronto is seeing an average of 7.50 total goals per game over the last 30 days which is the highest mark in the league. The power play hasn’t scored in two games but keeping the league’s best PP off the board is not an easy thing to do and it’s only a matter of time before it starts humming again.

The Buds’ top dogs will also be motivated after a lackluster performance versus Buffalo that saw them hit the bench and miss some important PP time. Matthews and Marner should be back to their elite ways tonight and facing the questionable goaltending of the Capitals will likely help.

With two of the best Over teams in the league going head-to-head tonight, we’re looking at this total one way and that’s with the Over. This total is starting to move and could possibly hit 7.0. We’re getting on it now as it wouldn’t be a play at that number.

PredictionOver 6.5 (-115 at PointsBet)

Best bet

Matthews was held off the scoresheet last game for just the first time in 17 straight games. The league’s leading goal scorer will likely be on a mission tonight after getting some tough love from his coach on Tuesday. 

Since January 1, Matthews has 39 goals across 41 games. He has scored in 14 of his last 17 games and is currently sitting with 58 goals and will be looking for more than one tonight in front of the home crowd.

The power play should also find its stride after going 0-for-10 over the last two games but Matthews does most of his damage at 5-on-5 which separates him from many other goal scorers. 

This is priced as low as -140 but Bet365 is posting a -105 anytime goal for Matthews which is a steal. Sign us up.

PickMatthews anytime goal (-105)

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