And now, with five games to play, we can truly see how every point matters.

Two weeks ago, their chances were nearly down to zero, according to HockeyViz.com. (A month ago they’d been hovering around 30 per cent.)

Then they won six games in a row and had dragged their chances back up to about 15 per cent.

But dropping a single point to the Ottawa Senators Tuesday night has their chances back down to single digits. And looking forward, it’s clear how truly difficult their path to the playoffs has now become.

It was always unlikely they’d truly run the table over the seven games in the last 12 games of the season, but a home game against the Senators, one of the weaker teams in the league this season, was a self-evident must-win.

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