The two best in the West meet tonight in Calgary as the Flames host the Colorado Avalanche in what could be a preview of the eventual Western Conference final showdown. This will be the third meeting this month between the two division leaders who split a pair of games in Colorado earlier in March.
Can the Flames take advantage of home ice versus a Colorado team that is 3-4 straight up over its last seven road games? Can the Flames offense avenge a 3-0 loss in Colorado two weeks ago?
Find out in our free NHL betting picks and predictions for Avalanche vs. Flames.
Avalanche vs Flames odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Flames opened as -115 favorites on the moneyline but have moved slightly to -120 with a total of 6.5 that is leaning to the Under. In the previous meeting on March 13 in Colorado, the Avs closed as a -175 ML favorite with a total of 6.5. Home ice is generally worth 20 points (40 points going from home to away) but Dan Vladar started that game in net for the Flames, which is why the +100 COL ML price is 75 points different.
Avalanche vs Flames predictions
Predictions made on 3/29/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Avalanche vs Flames game info
• Location: Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB
• Date: Tuesday, March 29, 2022
• Puck drop: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Altitude Sports, Sportsnet West
Avalanche vs Flames betting preview
Avalanche: Gabriel Landeskog F (Out), Bowen Byram D (Out), Artturi Lehkonen F (Probable).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Avalanche vs Flames head-to-head record since 2019-20
Avalanche: 7-6 SU, 46 goals for.
Flames: 6-7 SU, 39 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 10-1-1 in the Avalanche’s last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record. Find more NHL betting trends for Avalanche vs. Flames.
Avalanche vs Flames picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
The Flames and Avs will meet for the third time this month — this time in Alberta after both teams split the two games in Colorado. The Avs blanked Dan Vladar and the Flames 3-0 in the most recent matchup while Calgary took two points in a 4-3 OT win thanks to a Johnny Gaudreau winner. Both clubs are comfortably in the lead in their respective divisions but this game still means a lot to each as the path to the Cup could very well feature this same matchup in a Western Conference Final.
The market is starting to show confidence in the home team as the Flames have moved five points since opening to -120 at this writing. Since January 1, no team has more points at home than the Flames with a 17-3-2 SU record. They’re coming off a 9-5 beatdown of the Oilers on Saturday and face a Colorado team playing without its captain in Gabriel Landeskog and has just one regulation win across its last four games.
Landeskog has been out since March 10 and although the team is 5-2 SU in those games, it is scoring under 3.00 goals per game over that stretch. Nine of the team’s 22 goals have come on the power play and facing a Calgary team that has the best home GAA in the West could make things difficult for the visitors.
Colorado has also not seen Calgary goalie Jacob Markstrom this season as Vladar has made both starts in opposition. Markstrom is 6-2 SU in his last eight starts and has a 2.02 GAA at home this season. Colorado’s offense ranks second in the league in goals per game but is scoring just 3.17 goals per game over the last two months, which ranks 14th over that stretch. The Colorado offense has become very reliant on the power play while Calgary had killed 25 of 27 penalties before that Saturday shootout with the Oilers.
The Avs have allowed at least three goals in four of their last five games and in four of their last six road games. Darcy Kuemper has better home splits than the road, has dropped two straight games and four of his last six on the road. He’ll face a Calgary offense that’s scoring more goals per game than any other team in hockey since the All-Star break (3.95) and is being led by a top line that has combined for 19 goals over the team’s last 10 games — totaling 44 points in that stretch. The market might be a good indicator of the right side tonight and getting the Flames at -120 at home is a rare occurrence.
Prediction: Flames ML (-120)
The Flames are coming off a 9-5 win versus the Oilers and despite the offense going off, the team still allowed five goals, which is a point of emphasis Calgary head coach Darryl Sutter will likely want to clean up heading into tonight’s game versus a Colorado team that is 6-2 to the Under in its last eight.
The five goals allowed on home ice was just the second time that has happened to the Flames. Considering they have the second-best GAA at home in all of hockey, we doubt they let Colorado run up the score.
Colorado has scored more than three goals just twice over its last nine games and could struggle to beat Markstrom. He’s lost just five times in regulation over 31 home games this season. Since the All-Star break, both clubs sit in the Top 5 in goals allowed per game with Avalanche games averaging just 5.80 total goals, which ranks near the bottom of the league in total goals per game.
The last meeting saw just three goals scored with one coming on the empty net. The second goal was an unassisted tally from Nathan MacKinnon while the first goal of the game was a Colorado power-play marker. Calgary launched 46 total shots on net but wound up with zero goals in the 3-0 loss. Prior to that, the 4-3 Calgary win featured Vladar and Pavel Francouz in net.
This is going to be another hard-fought playoff-style game that we can’t see getting out of hand. The Avs are missing a big piece of their offense in Landeskog but have been one of the best defensive teams in hockey ever since they started to get solid netminding. Calgary’s top line is humming but this is still a team that has the best home GAA in the Western Conference and has no problem playing low-scoring games — especially on home ice.
We’re following the market movement on this total and hitting the Under 6.5 as it has hit 6 at some books already. The Avs are 10-1-1 to the Under across their last 12 games versus teams with a winning record.
Prediction: Under 6.5 (-125)
We’re hoping the 6.5 is still available for you at the time of reading this but that is where our best bet lies.
The Avs have yet to see Markstrom and managed just two goals against Vladar, Calgary’s backup, in the previous meeting. Colorado and Kuemper proved that they can keep the Flames off the scoresheet despite plenty of shots in the most recent 3-0 Colorado win.
The Colorado offense has been league-average over the last two months while the Flames have the best GAA on home ice in the Western Conference. If both teams can keep the opposing power plays in check, there shouldn’t be a lot of free ice at 5-on-5 with what should be a playoff-style game between the two best teams in the Western Conference.
Pick: Under 6.5 (-125)
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